A Guide for Uncertainty Analysis in Dose and Risk by National Council On Radiation Protection (Other Contributor)

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By National Council On Radiation Protection (Other Contributor)

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Extra info for A Guide for Uncertainty Analysis in Dose and Risk Assessments Related to Environmental Contamination (N C R P Report)

Sample text

The RfD is assumed in this Example to have a fixed but unknown value that does not vary from individual to individual. The first step is to quantify the state of knowledge associated with all fixed but unknown values (Type B uncertainty). By use of judgment after a thorough review of existing data, a log-uniform distribution is assigned to represent the uncertainty (due to lack of knowledge) about the fixed but unknown value of the RfD. The fixed but unknown means and standard deviations of the distributions used to describe the stochastically varying parameters Cf,B M and I are assigned subjective probability distributions representing lack of knowledge about the true values.

However, it is only when one of them is precisely defined that the concept of a dose-response function can be applied to it. Even then, it is not always clear what level of the endpoint should be considered adverse. It was therefore necessary for the encoding process to select an endpoint for which mild and moderate levels could be precisely defined. The mild level was a t the lower end of what might be considered adverse, and the moderate level was somewhat farther along on the continuum. Exposure conditions: To deal with chronic effects, it was decided to consider centriacinar damage over a single ozone season and also over 10 ozone seasons.

To obtain probability distributions over IQ decrement, it was necessary to define three components: mean IQ decrement among children not exposed to lead, mean IQ decrement among children exposed to lead, and population standard deviation for IQ levels. These components were then combined to obtain the desired probability distributions. O Response Rate Fig. 1. The judgments of Expert A regarding the probability of formation of ozone-induced mild lesions among Los Angeles children after exposure to ozone for one season.

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